Regime Change: Hamas
The New York Times has an interesting piece on a plan to destabilize the Palestinian government in an attempt to usher in new elections. It seems that the State Department and top Israeli officials have been discussing ways to starve the Palestinian Authority of cash, thereby setting off a crisis in which Mamoud Abbas can call for new elections. The goal, of course, is to undo Hamas's recent election victory as quickly as possible.
The plan rests on the Palestinian Authority's sketchy finances:
The officials said the destabilization plan centers largely on money. The Palestinian Authority has a monthly cash deficit of some $60 million to $70 million after it receives between $50 million and $55 million a month from Israel in taxes and customs duties collected by Israeli officials at the borders but owed to the Palestinians.
Israel says it will cut off those payments once Hamas takes power, and put the money in escrow. On top of that, some of the aid that the Palestinians currently receive will be stopped or reduced by the United States and European Union governments, which will be constrained by law or politics from providing money to an authority run by Hamas. The group is listed by Washington and the European Union as a terrorist organization.
Don't tell this to President Jimmy Carter, who is calling for precisely the opposite solution. Carter, who has demonstrated an amazing ability to vouch for dictatorships and thugs the world over, has even recommended ways to avoid counterterrorism laws that prohibit funds from flowing from American entities to Hamas, a recognized terrorist entity.
In any event, back to the New York Times piece. There are some interesting additional nuggets of information, like this one:
...the Palestinian Authority will face a cash deficit of at least $110 million a month, or more than $1 billion a year, which it needs to pay full salaries to its 140,000 employees, who are the breadwinners for at least one-third of the Palestinian population. The employment figure includes some 58,000 members of the security forces, most of which are affiliated with the defeated Fatah movement.
Think about that fact for a moment. The Palestinian Authority employees 140,000 people (!), who are the "breadwinners for at least one-third of the Palestinian population"!! It is no wonder that the Palestinian economy has limped along all these years. In addition, Hamas's electoral victory has sent the Palestinian stock market - which had been progressing modestly in recent years - into a tail spin: "The potential for an economic crisis is real. The Palestinian stock market has already fallen about 20 percent since the election on Jan. 25, and the Authority has exhausted its borrowing capacity with local banks."
The Times correctly notes that some nations (e.g. Syria and Iran) may step up their financial commitments in an attempt to ward off the U.S./Israeli plan. I would add that given the recent warm meetings between Putin's regime and Hamas in Moscow, Russia may decide to circumvent any possible U.N. prohibitions as well. Putin has even gone out of his way to claim that Russia "never thought of Hamas" as a terrorist organization.
The Times notes that "Hamas gets up to $100,000 a month in cash from abroad." But, that figure seems very low to me. We know, for example, that Iran has transferred tens of millions of dollars to Hamas on at least a couple of occasions. In any event, financial support from Syria & Iran & Russia (?) could certainly throw a kink in the U.S./Israeli plan.
UPDATE: Well, that didn't take long. Hamas reacted to the New York Times report on a plan to destabilize the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian branch with its usual, um, fervor. The Associated Press (via ABC) reports:
Mushir al Masri, a Hamas spokesman and incoming legislator, said attempts to bring down a future Hamas government were hypocritical.
"This is … a rejection of the democratic process, which the Americans are calling for day and night," al Masri said. "It's an interference and a collective punishment of our people because they practiced the democratic process in a transparent and honest way."
"We need a firm Islamic and Arabic position to confront this challenge," al Masri added.
The plan rests on the Palestinian Authority's sketchy finances:
The officials said the destabilization plan centers largely on money. The Palestinian Authority has a monthly cash deficit of some $60 million to $70 million after it receives between $50 million and $55 million a month from Israel in taxes and customs duties collected by Israeli officials at the borders but owed to the Palestinians.
Israel says it will cut off those payments once Hamas takes power, and put the money in escrow. On top of that, some of the aid that the Palestinians currently receive will be stopped or reduced by the United States and European Union governments, which will be constrained by law or politics from providing money to an authority run by Hamas. The group is listed by Washington and the European Union as a terrorist organization.
Don't tell this to President Jimmy Carter, who is calling for precisely the opposite solution. Carter, who has demonstrated an amazing ability to vouch for dictatorships and thugs the world over, has even recommended ways to avoid counterterrorism laws that prohibit funds from flowing from American entities to Hamas, a recognized terrorist entity.
In any event, back to the New York Times piece. There are some interesting additional nuggets of information, like this one:
...the Palestinian Authority will face a cash deficit of at least $110 million a month, or more than $1 billion a year, which it needs to pay full salaries to its 140,000 employees, who are the breadwinners for at least one-third of the Palestinian population. The employment figure includes some 58,000 members of the security forces, most of which are affiliated with the defeated Fatah movement.
Think about that fact for a moment. The Palestinian Authority employees 140,000 people (!), who are the "breadwinners for at least one-third of the Palestinian population"!! It is no wonder that the Palestinian economy has limped along all these years. In addition, Hamas's electoral victory has sent the Palestinian stock market - which had been progressing modestly in recent years - into a tail spin: "The potential for an economic crisis is real. The Palestinian stock market has already fallen about 20 percent since the election on Jan. 25, and the Authority has exhausted its borrowing capacity with local banks."
The Times correctly notes that some nations (e.g. Syria and Iran) may step up their financial commitments in an attempt to ward off the U.S./Israeli plan. I would add that given the recent warm meetings between Putin's regime and Hamas in Moscow, Russia may decide to circumvent any possible U.N. prohibitions as well. Putin has even gone out of his way to claim that Russia "never thought of Hamas" as a terrorist organization.
The Times notes that "Hamas gets up to $100,000 a month in cash from abroad." But, that figure seems very low to me. We know, for example, that Iran has transferred tens of millions of dollars to Hamas on at least a couple of occasions. In any event, financial support from Syria & Iran & Russia (?) could certainly throw a kink in the U.S./Israeli plan.
UPDATE: Well, that didn't take long. Hamas reacted to the New York Times report on a plan to destabilize the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian branch with its usual, um, fervor. The Associated Press (via ABC) reports:
Mushir al Masri, a Hamas spokesman and incoming legislator, said attempts to bring down a future Hamas government were hypocritical.
"This is … a rejection of the democratic process, which the Americans are calling for day and night," al Masri said. "It's an interference and a collective punishment of our people because they practiced the democratic process in a transparent and honest way."
"We need a firm Islamic and Arabic position to confront this challenge," al Masri added.
posted by Thomas Joscelyn at 10:05 AM
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